The report argues that public procurement is a useful, yet bounded, governance instrument for middle powers dependent on foreign frontier AI. By embedding contractual guarantees—such as model access for evaluation and termination clauses—into state contracts, governments can mitigate risks like vendor lock-in and data sovereignty vulnerabilities. However, the analysis finds that individual state demand provides limited leverage; therefore, the key strategic recommendation is that middle powers must coordinate their procurement efforts. This collective action is necessary to aggregate demand, share evaluation capabilities, and strengthen their collective bargaining position against dominant AI providers.
The Coming Risks to Russian Power
English Summary
While Russia currently punches above its weight by leveraging global fragmentation, its military heft, and control over vital resources, this advantage is predicated on continued international chaos. The article argues that this 'besieged fortress' model is unsustainable, predicting that a return to global stability would expose Russia's deep structural weaknesses, particularly in its high-tech and civilian sectors. For long-term development, Russia must pivot away from perpetual confrontation and instead pursue limited cooperation, especially with the EU. Failure to modernize its innovation infrastructure and shift its foreign policy toward engagement, rather than rivalry, poses the greatest risk to its future.
中文摘要
儘管俄羅斯目前透過利用全球碎片化、軍事實力及對關鍵資源的控制，達到超出其實際能力的狀態，但這種優勢建立在持續的國際混亂之上。本文認為，這種「被圍困的堡壘」模式是不可持續的，預測一旦全球穩定回歸，將會暴露俄羅斯深層的結構性弱點，特別是在其高科技和民用部門。若欲實現長期發展，俄羅斯必須擺脫持續對抗的模式，轉而尋求有限度的合作，尤其應與歐盟建立合作。若未能現代化其創新基礎設施，並將外交政策從競爭轉向參與，將對其未來構成最大的風險。
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