The report argues that public procurement is a useful, yet bounded, governance instrument for middle powers dependent on foreign frontier AI. By embedding contractual guarantees—such as model access for evaluation and termination clauses—into state contracts, governments can mitigate risks like vendor lock-in and data sovereignty vulnerabilities. However, the analysis finds that individual state demand provides limited leverage; therefore, the key strategic recommendation is that middle powers must coordinate their procurement efforts. This collective action is necessary to aggregate demand, share evaluation capabilities, and strengthen their collective bargaining position against dominant AI providers.
Conventional logics, nuclear fears: Inadvertent escalation risks between NATO and Russia
English Summary
The report argues that significant inadvertent escalation risks exist between NATO and Russia, stemming from the integration of conventional and nuclear doctrines in modern networked warfare. These risks are driven by the proliferation of dual-capable systems and advanced C4ISR operations, which blur the lines between conventional targeting and existential nuclear threats, making adversary intentions difficult to interpret. While effective conventional deterrence requires rapid, decisive action, this imperative directly conflicts with the need for restraint to prevent miscalculation. Policymakers must therefore increase sensitivity to potential operational 'blind spots' during planning, recognizing that while defense investments are necessary, the risk of escalation is inherent to the current strategic environment.
中文摘要
本報告指出，由於現代網路化作戰將傳統和核戰學說相結合，北大西洋公約組織（NATO）與俄羅斯之間存在顯著的意外升級風險。這些風險源於雙用途系統的擴散以及先進的C4ISR作戰能力，它們模糊了傳統目標與存亡級核威脅之間的界線，使得難以判斷敵方的真實意圖。雖然有效的傳統威懾需要快速、果斷的行動，但這種迫切性與避免誤判所需的克制之間存在直接衝突。因此，政策制定者必須提高對規劃過程中潛在作戰「盲點」的敏感度，認識到雖然國防投資是必要的，但升級風險本質上就內嵌於當前的戰略環境之中。
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