The report argues that public procurement is a useful, yet bounded, governance instrument for middle powers dependent on foreign frontier AI. By embedding contractual guarantees—such as model access for evaluation and termination clauses—into state contracts, governments can mitigate risks like vendor lock-in and data sovereignty vulnerabilities. However, the analysis finds that individual state demand provides limited leverage; therefore, the key strategic recommendation is that middle powers must coordinate their procurement efforts. This collective action is necessary to aggregate demand, share evaluation capabilities, and strengthen their collective bargaining position against dominant AI providers.
The Rise and Fall of Global Jihadism
English Summary
The article argues that global jihadism has fundamentally lost its ideological salience and transnational capability, despite the initial shock of 9/11. Key evidence suggests that major regional conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, have failed to trigger the expected jihadi surge, largely due to the loss of safe havens and sophisticated organizational infrastructure. Consequently, the policy implication is a strategic pivot away from massive, ground-based counter-insurgency wars toward intelligence-led, targeted operations, utilizing special forces and allied cooperation to disrupt decentralized networks.
中文摘要
本文論述，儘管經歷了「九一一」事件的初始衝擊，全球聖戰主義（jihadism）的意識形態顯著性與跨國能力已已根本性地衰退。關鍵證據顯示，包括中東在內的各大區域衝突，未能引發預期的聖戰激增，這主要歸因於安全庇護所和複雜組織基礎設施的喪失。因此，政策上的啟示是，戰略重心應從大規模、地面化的反叛亂作戰，轉向依賴情報、精準的行動模式，利用特種部隊和盟國合作來瓦解去中心化的網絡。
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