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Middle power AI agency: Preserving choice between the United States and China

Brookings | 2026-09-08 | tech

Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

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English Summary

Middle powers face a critical risk of losing practical sovereignty and agency due to increasing dependence on US and Chinese AI infrastructure. Since achieving full-stack AI sovereignty is infeasible, the recommended strategy is 'modular sovereignty,' which focuses on preserving choice and bargaining power rather than attempting autarky. Middle powers should concentrate on critical physical and industrial AI segments, such as healthcare and transport, where jurisdiction and reliability are paramount. This involves pooling complementary national assets to build resilience and alternative capacity, allowing them to cooperate with superpowers where interests align while maintaining independent control over applications and deployment.

中文摘要

中等國家面臨的關鍵風險是,由於過度依賴美中兩國的AI基礎設施,可能導致實質主權和行動能力受損。鑑於實現全棧式AI主權難度極高,本文建議的戰略是「模組化主權」,其重點在於維護選擇權和談判能力,而非追求自給自足。中等國家應專注於醫療和交通等關鍵的實體與產業AI領域,因為這些領域的管轄權和可靠性至關重要。這要求整合互補的國家資產,以建立韌性與替代能力,從而使其能夠在利益一致時與超級大國合作,同時仍能獨立控制應用和部署。

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