The report argues that public procurement is a useful, yet bounded, governance instrument for middle powers dependent on foreign frontier AI. By embedding contractual guarantees—such as model access for evaluation and termination clauses—into state contracts, governments can mitigate risks like vendor lock-in and data sovereignty vulnerabilities. However, the analysis finds that individual state demand provides limited leverage; therefore, the key strategic recommendation is that middle powers must coordinate their procurement efforts. This collective action is necessary to aggregate demand, share evaluation capabilities, and strengthen their collective bargaining position against dominant AI providers.
How al-Qaeda Ended
English Summary
The analysis concludes that the core al-Qaeda organization has effectively ceased to exist, primarily due to strategic failure, internal divisions, and a profound loss of local support among Muslim populations. Key evidence points to the group's inability to maintain coherence, exacerbated by the radical divergence of affiliates like ISIS, and the sustained intelligence cooperation among U.S. allies. For policy, the report advises that officials must cease overstating the threat posed by remaining affiliates and instead focus on intelligence and law-enforcement collaboration to address localized jihadist threats, rather than pursuing a vague, overarching 'war on terrorism.'
中文摘要
分析結論指出，核心基地組織已實質性地瓦解，主要原因包括戰略失敗、內部分裂，以及在穆斯林群眾中深層流失的本地支持度。關鍵證據顯示，該組織難以維持其內部凝聚力，而這又因如ISIS等分支的激進分化，以及美國盟友間持續的情資合作而加劇。因此，本報告建議政策制定者應停止過度渲染剩餘分支所構成的威脅，轉而專注於情資與執法合作，以應對地方性的極端主義威脅，而非追求籠統的「反恐戰爭」。
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