The report argues that public procurement is a useful, yet bounded, governance instrument for middle powers dependent on foreign frontier AI. By embedding contractual guarantees—such as model access for evaluation and termination clauses—into state contracts, governments can mitigate risks like vendor lock-in and data sovereignty vulnerabilities. However, the analysis finds that individual state demand provides limited leverage; therefore, the key strategic recommendation is that middle powers must coordinate their procurement efforts. This collective action is necessary to aggregate demand, share evaluation capabilities, and strengthen their collective bargaining position against dominant AI providers.
The Iran Shock Is Not Over
English Summary
The publication argues that while the world successfully navigated the recent 'Iran Shock' without a catastrophic energy crisis, this relative stability is deceptive and should not breed complacency. The immediate avoidance of a price shock was due to temporary buffers, including the utilization of bypass pipelines, massive IEA stock releases, and critically, China significantly reducing its global oil demand. However, the analysis warns that these buffers are eroding, emphasizing that energy remains a devastating geopolitical weapon. Policymakers must recognize that the threat of energy weaponization is transforming national security and requires continuous strategic vigilance.
中文摘要
本研究論述，儘管全球成功度過了近期「伊朗衝擊」而未面臨能源危機，但這種相對穩定是具有欺騙性的，不應滋生自滿。當前避免價格衝擊的因素，源於臨時緩衝機制，包括利用繞過管道、國際能源署（IEA）的大規模庫存釋放，以及關鍵的中國大幅降低了全球石油需求。然而，分析警告指出，這些緩衝機制正在消退，並強調能源仍是一種破壞性的地緣政治武器。政策制定者必須正視能源武器化所帶來的威脅，這正在改變國家安全格局，要求持續的戰略警惕。
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