The report argues that public procurement is a useful, yet bounded, governance instrument for middle powers dependent on foreign frontier AI. By embedding contractual guarantees—such as model access for evaluation and termination clauses—into state contracts, governments can mitigate risks like vendor lock-in and data sovereignty vulnerabilities. However, the analysis finds that individual state demand provides limited leverage; therefore, the key strategic recommendation is that middle powers must coordinate their procurement efforts. This collective action is necessary to aggregate demand, share evaluation capabilities, and strengthen their collective bargaining position against dominant AI providers.
The Emerging U.S.-China Détente
English Summary
The article argues that U.S.-China relations are shifting from a zero-sum 'strategic competition' narrative toward a pragmatic 'constructive strategic stability.' This détente is sustained not only by high-level agreements but primarily by powerful structural forces, including the prohibitive cost of total economic decoupling and the catastrophic risks of military conflict, which mandate interdependence. For policymakers, the implication is that the focus must be on building a stable 'floor' by reinforcing concrete mechanisms, such as improving military-to-military communications and reducing economic friction. This structural imperative suggests that the current period of stability is likely to endure, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
中文摘要
本文論述美中關係正從零和的「戰略競爭」敘事，轉向更為務實的「建設性戰略穩定」。這種關係緩和不僅源於高層級的協定，更主要受到強大的結構性力量所維持，包括完全經濟脫鉤的巨大成本，以及軍事衝突的災難性風險，這些因素共同要求雙方必須保持相互依賴。對於政策制定者而言，其啟示是，重點必須放在透過強化具體機制來建立穩定的「底線」（floor），例如改善軍事對軍事溝通和減少經濟摩擦。這種結構性必然要求表明，即使在持續的地緣政治緊張局勢下，當前的穩定期也極有可能持續。
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