The report argues that public procurement is a useful, yet bounded, governance instrument for middle powers dependent on foreign frontier AI. By embedding contractual guarantees—such as model access for evaluation and termination clauses—into state contracts, governments can mitigate risks like vendor lock-in and data sovereignty vulnerabilities. However, the analysis finds that individual state demand provides limited leverage; therefore, the key strategic recommendation is that middle powers must coordinate their procurement efforts. This collective action is necessary to aggregate demand, share evaluation capabilities, and strengthen their collective bargaining position against dominant AI providers.
The Right Way to Sanction Russia
English Summary
The article argues that Western sanctions on Russia are not a lost cause, but their effectiveness is undermined by Russia's ability to utilize a 'shadow fleet' of tankers that bypass existing price caps. This evasion relies on loopholes in international enforcement, particularly concerning vessel ownership and insurance requirements. To restore pressure, the strategy must shift to Europe closing these gaps: restricting the supply of replacement vessels and pressuring flag states to enforce rigorous insurance standards. By making the shadow fleet financially and legally unviable, Western powers can significantly reduce Moscow's ability to finance its war efforts.
中文摘要
本文論述西方對俄羅斯的制裁並非徒勞無功，但其有效性受到俄羅斯利用「影子船隊」的削弱，該船隊能夠規避現有的價格上限。這種規避行為依賴於國際執法中的漏洞，特別是在船隻所有權和保險要求方面。若要恢復壓力，戰略必須轉向歐洲彌補這些漏洞：限制替換船隻的供應，並迫使船旗國執行嚴格的保險標準。透過使影子船隊在財務和法律上難以維持，西方國家可以顯著削弱莫斯科為其戰爭努力籌集資金的能力。
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