The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Fighting Without Friends
English Summary
The United States is losing soft power, trust with allies, and control over the global security agenda, directly constraining military operations and strategic deterrence. Allies are denying U.S. access to bases, airspace, and intelligence sharing, while new security partnerships form without American involvement. Depleted munitions from recent conflicts and competing budget demands force difficult trade-offs between emerging technologies and traditional military capabilities. U.S. defense policy must pursue asymmetric competition, disciplined innovation, and diplomatic engagement to restore allied relationships and avoid overstretch.
中文摘要
美國正在喪失軟實力、盟國信任以及對全球安全議程的控制力，這直接制約了其軍事行動和戰略威懾能力。盟國正在拒絕美國進入軍事基地、領空和情報共享，同時新的安全夥伴關係在沒有美國參與的情況下形成。近期衝突造成的彈藥消耗和相互競爭的預算需求迫使國防政策在新興技術和傳統軍事能力之間進行艱難的抉擇。美國國防政策必須追求非對稱競爭、有紀律的創新和外交接觸，以恢復盟友關係並避免過度擴張。
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