The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
With Hormuz Closed, China Is Wiring the Globe’s Clean Energy Future
English Summary
The article argues that geopolitical instability, such as the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accelerates the global shift toward clean energy, positioning China as the dominant leader in the new 'electrostate' model. China's advantage stems from its comprehensive control over the 'new trio' (solar, batteries, EVs) and critical manufacturing infrastructure, including rare-earth elements and electrical grid hardware. This deepens China's global economic leverage, challenging the traditional 'petrostate' model. For the United States, the implication is that it must urgently pivot its strategy away from resource dependence and compete effectively in the 'Age of Electricity' to mitigate China's growing geopolitical influence.
中文摘要
本文論述，地緣政治不穩定，例如霍爾木茲海峽可能關閉的風險，加速了全球能源向清潔能源轉型的趨勢，並使中國處於新的「電能國家」（electrostate）模式的主導地位。中國的優勢源於其對「新三件」（太陽能、電池、電動車）的全面掌控，以及稀土元素和電網硬體等關鍵製造基礎設施。這加深了中國的全球經濟槓桿，挑戰了傳統的「石油國家」（petrostate）模式。對於美國而言，其啟示是必須緊急調整戰略，擺脫對資源的依賴，並在「電力時代」有效競爭，以緩解中國日益增長的地緣政治影響力。
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