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Brazil’s Amazon rainforest is at risk if Bolsonaro wins – but its low-carbon economy is here to stay

Chatham House | 2026-10-07 | economy

Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Trade, United States

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English Summary

While a Bolsonaro presidency poses a significant threat to Amazon deforestation and environmental enforcement, Brazil's overall low-carbon energy transition is structurally resilient. This resilience is driven by existing private sector investments in renewables, biofuels, and the country's established clean energy mix (87% renewable electricity). Furthermore, global economic forces—particularly China's massive demand for commodities and energy—are reinforcing Brazil's strategic role as a major global producer of both oil and clean energy. Therefore, the country's energy trajectory is likely to progress regardless of political changes, though land-use regulations remain vulnerable to executive power.

中文摘要

儘管博索納羅總統任期對亞馬遜森林的砍伐和環境執法構成重大威脅,但巴西整體低碳能源轉型仍具有結構性韌性。這種韌性源於私營部門在再生能源、生物燃料的既有投資,以及國家成熟的清潔能源結構(電力來源中再生能源佔比達87%)。此外,全球經濟力量——特別是中國對大宗商品和能源的巨大需求——正在強化巴西作為石油和清潔能源主要全球生產者的戰略地位。因此,無論政治局勢如何變化,該國的能源發展軌跡極有可能持續推進,儘管土地使用規範仍容易受到行政權力的影響。

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