The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater defined by sustained U.S.-led military exercises and escalating great power competition. Key evidence includes continuous joint operations, such as RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii and the deployment of CSGs into the South China Sea, juxtaposed with increased naval activity from both China (PLAN task groups) and Russia near Japan's critical straits. These movements underscore a strategic push by non-allied powers to assert presence and challenge regional norms. Policy implications dictate that allied nations must maintain robust multilateral cooperation and interoperability to safeguard freedom of navigation and manage escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
What are Iran’s next domestic, regional and international moves?
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis posits that Iran is navigating a period of acute domestic instability and economic strain following a recent conflict. The regime must simultaneously manage wartime governance, internal elite dynamics, and public sentiment at home. This internal pressure forces Tehran to fundamentally recalibrate its regional strategy and international engagement with both allies and adversaries. Ultimately, the confluence of domestic and external pressures is reshaping Iran's deterrence calculus and diplomatic positioning in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.
中文摘要
查塔姆館的分析指出，在經歷近期衝突後，伊朗正處於一段極度不穩定和經濟困境的時期。該政權必須同時應對戰時治理、內部精英動態，以及國內的民意情緒。這種內在壓力迫使德黑蘭必須從根本上重新調整其區域戰略，並調整與盟友和敵對方的國際互動。最終，國內與外部壓力匯集，正在重塑伊朗的威懾計算和其在地緣政治環境中不斷變化的外交定位。
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