Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Ethiopia needs more than an election to calm internal and regional conflict
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis argues that Ethiopia's deep-seated internal and regional conflicts—particularly in Tigray and Amhara—are overshadowing the upcoming election, rendering the poll insufficient for achieving stability. Escalating tensions are driven by the TPLF's reconstitution of regional authority and the risk of wider regional conflagration, evidenced by proxy conflicts and shifting alliances with neighbors like Eritrea and Sudan. Consequently, the report stresses that resolving the crisis requires an urgent, coordinated diplomatic response from major international actors (including the US, EU, and China) to bolster regional mediation efforts, rather than relying on political processes or electoral outcomes.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析指出，衣索比亞根深蒂固的內部與區域衝突——特別是在提格雷和阿姆哈拉地區——正在掩蓋即將到來的選舉，使得透過民調無法實現穩定。緊張局勢的升級源於人民解放戰線黨（TPLF）重建區域權威，以及爆發更廣泛區域戰火的風險，這從與厄立特里亞和蘇丹等鄰國的代理人衝突和聯盟轉變中可見。因此，報告強調，解決這場危機需要主要國際行為者（包括美國、歐盟和中國）緊急且協調的外交回應，以加強區域調解努力，而非依賴政治過程或選舉結果。
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