The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.
US voters are angry. But on tariffs and war, the midterms won’t bring quick change
English Summary
Although American voters are highly agitated over inflation and the cost of living, the Chatham House analysis finds that the upcoming midterms will not result in quick policy changes regarding tariffs or the conflict with Iran. While voters directly link tariffs and the war to high prices, legislative efforts to repeal tariffs or curb military spending face significant institutional hurdles and partisan gridlock. The administration is actively doubling down on protectionist measures (e.g., Section 301 investigations), and Congress's power of the purse, while a tool, is unlikely to deliver rapid, decisive cost reductions for consumers. Ultimately, voters' anger is likely to increase frustration rather than leading to immediate economic relief, potentially setting the stage for volatile political outcomes in 2028.
中文摘要
儘管美國選民對通貨膨脹和生活成本極度焦慮，但查塔姆館（Chatham House）的分析指出，即將到來的中期選舉不會導致關稅或伊朗衝突方面出現快速的政策轉變。雖然選民直接將關稅和戰爭與高物價掛鉤，但立法機構在廢除關稅或削減軍事開支方面，仍面臨重大的制度障礙和黨派僵局。現任政府正積極加倍推動保護主義措施（例如《301條款》調查），而國會的預算權雖然是一種工具，但不太可能為消費者帶來快速、決定性的成本削減。從長遠來看，選民的憤怒更有可能加劇挫敗感，而非帶來即時的經濟緩解，這可能會為2028年帶來不穩定的政治結果。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
-
3.
China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.
-
4.
The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.
-
5.
The built environment workforce, comprising 15.3 million workers across 95 occupations, is foundational to modern infrastructure and economic stability. While highly paid, the workforce suffers from significant demographic imbalances, being disproportionately white and male, and often lacking clear career progression pathways. To prevent project delays and cost overruns, policy must mandate that capital asset owners treat labor market forecasting as core to project planning. Strategic interventions are required to strengthen career pipelines through robust apprenticeships, improve retention, and actively recruit younger and more diverse workers.