The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Armenia’s election: Voters to decide on Pashinyan’s peace agenda
English Summary
The upcoming Armenian election functions as a preliminary referendum on Prime Minister Pashinyan's peace agenda, which mandates the renunciation of territorial claims, particularly regarding Mountainous Karabakh. This geopolitical shift has diminished Russian influence while forcing Armenia to execute a strategic 'pivot' toward Western partners (US, EU). Policy implications suggest that Armenia is pursuing a model of 'omni-alignment,' balancing Western diplomatic support with critical Russian economic dependencies. External powers must recognize that stability hinges on managing this complex balance between peace negotiations, internal political reconciliation, and maintaining multiple international ties.
中文摘要
即將到來的亞美尼亞選舉，實質上是對帕希尼揚總理和平議程的一次預備性公投。該議程要求放棄領土主張，特別是關於山區卡拉巴赫的領土權。這一地緣政治轉變削弱了俄羅斯的影響力，同時迫使亞美尼亞執行戰略性的「轉向」（pivot），朝向西方夥伴（美國、歐盟）。政策意涵顯示，亞美尼亞正在推行一種「全方位平衡」（omni-alignment）模式，在平衡西方外交支持與關鍵俄羅斯經濟依賴之間尋求平衡。外部大國必須認識到，穩定性取決於管理這種複雜的平衡：即和平談判、內部政治和解，以及維持多重國際關係之間的平衡。
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