The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater defined by sustained U.S.-led military exercises and escalating great power competition. Key evidence includes continuous joint operations, such as RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii and the deployment of CSGs into the South China Sea, juxtaposed with increased naval activity from both China (PLAN task groups) and Russia near Japan's critical straits. These movements underscore a strategic push by non-allied powers to assert presence and challenge regional norms. Policy implications dictate that allied nations must maintain robust multilateral cooperation and interoperability to safeguard freedom of navigation and manage escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
How a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire could imperil Ukrainian and European security
English Summary
Chatham House warns that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine poses significant risks to European and Ukrainian security. The primary concern is that Russia has a history of manipulating agreements, and a poorly defined pause could allow Russian forces to regroup and rearm. Furthermore, Moscow could continue exerting pressure through non-military means, including cyberattacks, sabotage, and election interference. Therefore, the paper advises that Ukraine and its partners must proactively mitigate these risks to ensure long-term European security and stability.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會警告，俄烏之間的停火行動對歐洲和烏克蘭的安全構成重大風險。主要擔憂在於俄羅斯有操縱協議的歷史記錄，而定義不清的暫停可能會讓俄軍有機會重整部署和重新武裝。此外，莫斯科可能會透過非軍事手段持續施壓，包括網路攻擊、破壞行為和干預選舉。因此，該報告建議烏克蘭及其夥伴必須主動減輕這些風險，以確保長期的歐洲安全與穩定。
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