The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Even Hormuz reopening will not resolve Europe’s key energy vulnerability
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis concludes that even a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will fail to resolve Europe’s fundamental energy vulnerability due to structural market shifts. Geopolitical conflicts have severely damaged key supply sources, particularly Qatar's LNG capacity, forcing Europe into increased reliance on US natural gas (reaching 63% in Q1 2026). This dependency exposes the continent to potential energy coercion by the United States and undermines its strategic autonomy. Furthermore, limited current supplies coupled with planned massive US expansion will keep prices elevated and deepen global market integration, complicating Europe's path toward energy security.
中文摘要
查塔姆館的分析指出，即使霍爾木茲海峽重新開放，也無法解決歐洲固有的能源脆弱性，因為結構性的市場轉變已成定局。地緣政治衝突嚴重損害了關鍵供應來源，特別是卡達的液化天然氣（LNG）產能，迫使歐洲大幅增加對美國天然氣的依賴（預計至2026年第一季達到63%）。這種高度依賴性使得歐盟大陸容易受到美國潛在的能源脅迫，並削弱了其戰略自主權。此外，現有供應的限制與美國計劃的大規模擴張結合，將推高價格並加深全球市場整合程度，使歐洲實現能源安全的路徑更加複雜。
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