The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Iran and the new Persian Gulf equilibrium
English Summary
The article argues that the 2026 US-Iran war has permanently reshaped Persian Gulf geopolitics by breaking the psychological barrier against closing the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran will now integrate as a core deterrence tool replacing the weakened Axis of Resistance. Iran's forward-defense strategy through proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas failed to deter US and Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, prompting Tehran to shift its strategic focus to Hormuz closure and Gulf-state targeting as primary leverage. The Houthi capacity to simultaneously disrupt the Bab al-Mandab compounds this threat to global shipping. Iran will prioritize rebuilding missile and drone capabilities over nuclear infrastructure to keep the Strait closure option credible. For policymakers, this means the Gulf's pre-February 2026 security architecture is obsolete: GCC states face a persistent coercion threat, energy supply-chain diversification is now urgent, and any future diplomatic framework must account for Iran's demonstrated willingness to weaponize maritime chokepoints.
中文摘要
本文主張，2026年美伊戰爭已永久重塑波斯灣地緣政治格局，打破了封鎖荷莫茲海峽的心理障礙。伊朗將把封鎖海峽納入核心嚇阻工具，取代已遭削弱的「抵抗軸心」。伊朗過去透過真主黨、哈馬斯等代理武裝組織推行前沿防禦戰略，但未能阻止美國與以色列對伊朗本土的打擊，促使德黑蘭將戰略重心轉向封鎖荷莫茲海峽及威脅海灣國家，作為主要施壓手段。胡塞武裝同時擾亂曼德海峽的能力，更加劇了全球航運所面臨的威脅。伊朗將優先重建飛彈與無人機能力，而非核基礎設施，以維持封鎖海峽選項的可信度。對決策者而言，這意味著波斯灣在2026年2月前的安全架構已然過時：海灣合作委員會成員國面臨持續性的脅迫威脅，能源供應鏈多元化已刻不容緩，未來任何外交框架都必須將伊朗已展現的將海上咽喉要道武器化的意願納入考量。
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