ThinkTankWeekly

By agreeing to disarm, Hamas is trying to call Israel’s bluff in Gaza

Chatham House | 2026-08-08 | middle_east

Topics: Middle East, United States

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English Summary

Hamas's agreement to disarm is interpreted not as a genuine commitment, but as a strategic attempt to call Israel’s bluff and increase external pressure for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The process remains stalled by mutual demands: Israel insists on full disarmament before withdrawing, while Hamas maintains that its decommissioning is contingent upon Israeli withdrawal and the establishment of Palestinian statehood. Consequently, both parties are likely to engage in political stalling, allowing them to avoid real commitments while appearing compliant to international mediators. Sustained external diplomatic pressure from global powers remains critical, as internal political resistance on both sides threatens to derail any functional peace roadmap.

中文摘要

外界解讀,哈馬斯同意解除武裝並非是真誠承諾,而是一種戰略舉動,旨在試探以色列底線,並增加外部壓力以迫使以色列從加沙撤軍。由於雙方存在相互的條件要求,這一進程仍處於停滯狀態:以色列堅持必須先完成全面解兵,才能考慮撤離;而哈馬斯則主張其解除武裝的前提是以色列撤出加沙,並建立巴勒斯坦國家的主權地位。因此,雙方極有可能陷入政治拖延的局面,從而在表面上對國際調解人表現出順從,同時避免做出任何實質承諾。持續且穩定的外部外交壓力至關重要,因為雙方的內部政治阻力威脅著將使任何可行的和平藍圖功虧一<0xE7><0xB0><0xA3>。

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