The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
After the Supermajority: Ethiopia’s Trajectory Following the 2026 Election
English Summary
The Prosperity Party's supermajority provides political predictability for accelerated economic reforms but simultaneously creates an accountability deficit by enabling centralization of power. This push toward a statist, centralized model undermines the country’s established ethnic federalism, risking the exacerbation of deep-seated conflicts in regions like Tigray and Oromia. Strategically, this mandate removes incentives for accommodation, allowing Ethiopia to pursue increasingly assertive regional goals—such as securing sea access—which heightens geopolitical tensions with neighboring states like Eritrea and Sudan.
中文摘要
繁榮黨的超額多數票掌握為加速經濟改革提供了政治可預測性，但同時也因權力過度集中而造成了問責赤字。這種朝向國家主義、中央集權模式的推動，削弱了該國既有的族群邦聯制，並使像提格雷和奧羅米亞等地區根深蒂固的衝突風險加劇。從戰略角度來看，這項授權消除了妥協的誘因，使得衣索比亞能夠追求日益強硬的區域目標——例如確保海港出入口——從而提高了與厄立特里亞和蘇丹等鄰國的地緣政治緊張局勢。
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