The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear Project
English Summary
The article warns that recent high-tempo conflicts, particularly the campaign against Iran, have severely depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles, creating a significant window of vulnerability for potential Western Pacific contingencies. Key evidence shows that replenishing major systems—such as THAAD, Patriot, and Tomahawk—is a multiyear endeavor, with some munitions requiring three to several years to return to pre-war levels due to production lead times and high demand. Strategically, the U.S. must execute massive procurement efforts, as reflected in the FY 2027 budget, while navigating complex allocation decisions to balance critical domestic needs with ongoing commitments to allies and partners.
中文摘要
本文警告指出，近期高強度衝突，特別是針對伊朗的戰役，已嚴重消耗美國的彈藥庫存，為潛在的西太平洋危機情境創造了重大的脆弱期。關鍵證據顯示，補充主要系統（如THAAD、愛國者和戰斧巡弋飛彈）是一項耗時數年的工程，由於生產交期和高需求，部分彈藥需要三到數年才能恢復到戰前水平。從戰略角度來看，美國必須執行大規模的採購努力，如財政年度2027年預算所示，同時在平衡關鍵國內需求與持續對盟友及夥伴的承諾之間，應謹慎處理複雜的資源分配決策。
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