ThinkTankWeekly

The Future of USMCA

CSIS | 2026-11-03 | economy

Topics: China, Trade, United States

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English Summary

The USMCA faces significant structural challenges due to conflicting U.S. objectives: preventing China's economic penetration versus unilaterally boosting domestic U.S. content. The current push for U.S.-centric rules of origin, such as those related to Section 232 tariffs, risks undermining the trilateral market integration that has historically benefited all three nations. For the agreement to succeed, the U.S. must balance security concerns (like countering China) with regional stability, potentially through a customs union model. If the U.S. insists on purely unilateral terms, agreement is unlikely and would cause severe supply chain disruptions across North America.

中文摘要

由於美國目標存在衝突,美墨加協定(USMCA)面臨重大的結構性挑戰:一方面是阻止中國的經濟滲透,另一方面是單方面提升美國本土內容比例。當前推動的以美國為中心的原產地規則,例如與《232條款》相關的規定,有損歷史上對三國都產生益處的三邊市場整合。若欲使該協定成功,美國必須在國家安全顧慮(如應對中國)與區域穩定之間取得平衡,或許可以透過建立關稅同盟模式來實現。如果美國堅持純粹的單邊條款,該協定成功的可能性極低,並將導致北美地區的供應鏈遭受嚴重中斷。

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