The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
America Needs the Trust of Its Friends, Not Its Adversaries
English Summary
The article argues that while trust with adversaries is unnecessary for successful negotiations—only verification mechanisms and clear incentive structures matter—trust with allies is essential for effective foreign policy. Drawing on former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman's experience negotiating with Iran, the author contends that allied trust amplifies U.S. influence by facilitating information sharing, coordinated responses, and collective pressure on adversaries. The U.S. government has underinvested in cultivating this critical alliance trust, which undermines its ability to leverage collective action against rivals.
中文摘要
本文論述，雖然在與敵對方進行談判時，信任並非成功的必要條件——僅有驗證機制和明確的激勵結構才是關鍵——但與盟友之間的信任對於有效的外交政策至關重要。作者引用前美國國務次長溫蒂·舍曼（Wendy Sherman）與伊朗談判的經驗，主張盟友信任能透過促進資訊共享、協調應對和對敵對方的集體壓力，放大美國的影響力。然而，美國政府在培養這種關鍵的聯盟信任方面投入不足，這削弱了其利用集體行動對抗競爭對手的能力。
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