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Risks of Racing: Russian and Chinese Perceptions of Strategic Competition in the Euro-Atlantic Region

CSIS | 2026-08-08 | defense

Topics: China, Nuclear, Russia, United States

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English Summary

The CSIS analysis suggests that Russia and China are unlikely to halt their nuclear modernization and expansion programs due to deep-seated domestic factors and distrust of the United States. While both nations view US buildup as a risk, they may perceive different capabilities as more escalatory than others. Therefore, rather than assuming an arms race is avoidable, the report advises that the US and its allies must tailor their deterrence and risk reduction efforts specifically to address Russian and Chinese threat perceptions. This approach requires understanding which specific military investments are viewed by Beijing and Moscow as crossing red lines.

中文摘要

CSIS 的分析指出,由於根深蒂固的國內因素以及對美國的不信任感,俄羅斯和中國不太可能停止其核武現代化與擴張計畫。雖然兩國都將美國的軍備升級視為風險,但它們對於哪些能力構成更具升級性的威脅感知可能有所不同。因此,報告建議,而非假設軍備競賽是可以避免的,美國及其盟友必須量身打造其嚇阻和風險緩解努力,以特別針對俄羅斯和中國的威脅認知。這種方法要求深入了解北京和莫斯科視為跨越紅線的具體軍事投資。

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