The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Why Immigration Policy Is Hard: And How to Make It Better
English Summary
The analysis argues that effective immigration policy is inherently difficult and requires difficult tradeoffs, warning that the current mixed model is unlikely to succeed politically or economically. Key evidence is drawn from contrasting the high-volume, low-rights 'Dubai model' with the low-volume, high-rights 'European model,' while also criticizing investor visas for failing to guarantee productive economic contribution. Policymakers must therefore move away from hybrid systems and instead adopt a clearer, more defined strategy that either strictly controls numbers or ensures migrants have a clear path to productive integration.
中文摘要
該分析指出，有效的移民政策本質上極具挑戰性，需要進行艱難的權衡取捨，並警告稱現行的混合模式在政治或經濟上不太可能成功。其關鍵證據來自於對比高人流量、低權益的「杜拜模式」與低人流量、高權益的「歐洲模式」，同時也批評了投資者簽證未能確保產生生產性經濟貢獻。因此，政策制定者必須擺脫混合體系，轉而採取更清晰、更明確的策略，即或嚴格控制人數，或確保移民有明確的途徑實現生產性融入。
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