While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
How North Korea Won
English Summary
The article analyzes the systemic factors contributing to North Korea's resilience and stability, suggesting that its 'victory' lies in its ability to navigate severe external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Key evidence points to the nation's pre-existing structural vulnerabilities, including profound food insecurity and a dilapidated public health infrastructure, which the regime has managed to withstand. For policy, this implies that traditional measures of external pressure or aid must account for these deep-seated internal weaknesses. Any strategic planning must recognize that the regime's stability is highly dependent on managing these internal crises while maintaining geopolitical isolation.
中文摘要
本文分析了促成朝鮮半島韌性與穩定性的系統性因素，指出其「勝利」在於應對嚴峻外部衝擊（例如COVID-19疫情）的能力。關鍵證據指向該國既有的結構性弱點，包括深層的糧食不安全和落後的公共衛生基礎設施，而政權仍成功地抵禦了這些危機。從政策層面來看，這意味著傳統的外部壓力或援助措施必須考慮到這些根深蒂固的內部弱點。任何戰略規劃都必須認識到，該政權的穩定性高度依賴於管理這些內部危機，同時維持地緣政治上的孤立狀態。
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