While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
The Palimpsest Constitution: The Social Life of Constitutions in Myanmar
English Summary
The article argues that Myanmar possesses a "palimpsest constitution," meaning that its political landscape is shaped not by a single document, but by the persistent, layered memory of multiple historical legal codes. Key evidence includes the selective invocation of documents ranging from the British colonial laws and the 1935 Act to the 1959 and 2008 constitutions by both military leaders and political opposition. The central finding is that constitutional discourse is not a guarantee of democracy, but rather a flexible tool that can be utilized by all political actors—even authoritarian ones—to legitimize their claims and sustain repression. For policy, this suggests that external engagement must recognize the deep, contradictory nature of Myanmar's legal culture, understanding that formal constitutional adherence does not equate to genuine democratic governance.
中文摘要
本文論述緬甸擁有一個「羊皮紙憲法」（palimpsest constitution），意指其政治格局並非由單一文件塑造，而是由多個歷史法律法典持續疊加、層層累積的記憶所形塑。關鍵證據包括軍方領導人與政治反對派皆有選擇性地援引文件，範圍涵蓋了從英國殖民地法律、1935年法案，到1959年和2008年憲法等。核心發現是，憲法論述本身並不能保證民主，而更像是一種靈活的工具，可供所有政治行為者——即使是威權政體——利用來合法化其主張並維持壓制。因此，政策建議是，外部參與必須認識到緬甸法律文化深層且矛盾的本質，理解形式上的憲法遵循並不等同於真正的民主治理。
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