The article outlines how a successful modern foreign policy career requires blending traditional diplomatic expertise with private sector acumen. Juster's career trajectory—from international law to high-stakes diplomacy (e.g., the Gulf War) and subsequently to the technology sector—demonstrates this synthesis. Key evidence includes his work managing complex negotiations under duress and his involvement in co-founding the U.S.-India High Technology Group. The implication for policy is that effective geopolitical strategy must actively integrate private sector knowledge and technological considerations to manage modern economic and security challenges.
Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse
English Summary
The article argues that large, dominant political structures, or "Goliaths," historically sow the seeds of their own decline, citing examples from the Roman Empire to modern global powers. The key evidence points to systemic vulnerabilities, including territorial overreach, extreme wealth inequality, environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and institutional corruption. The author posits that the contemporary Goliath is not a single nation but a globalized capitalist civilization facing unprecedented stress from climate change, pandemics, and a fragmenting global system. Policy implications suggest that mitigating these systemic risks—rather than focusing solely on geopolitical competition—is crucial for preventing a major societal collapse.
中文摘要
本文論述大型、主導的政治結構，或稱「巨頭」，在歷史上往往會播下自身衰落的種子，並以從羅馬帝國到現代全球大國的案例佐證。其核心證據指出，這些結構存在著系統性的弱點，包括領土過度擴張、極端的財富不平等、環境退化、資源稀缺，以及制度性的腐敗。作者提出，當代「巨頭」已非單一國家，而是一個面臨氣候變遷、疫情爆發和全球體系碎片化等多重前所未有壓力的全球化資本主義文明。政策意涵顯示，預防重大的社會崩潰，關鍵在於減緩這些系統性風險，而非僅僅關注地緣政治競爭。
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The analysis cautions that the upcoming Trump-Xi summit must not result in short-term strategic concessions for the US, which risks undermining long-term stability. China is rapidly consolidating global power, leveraging US policy shifts and increasing its assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific and in technology. Strategically, the US must prioritize addressing the immediate crisis in Iran, where China holds significant leverage, and must also focus on joint cooperation on AI. Ultimately, the US must resist political impulses and pursue a robust strategy to counter China's growing challenge to global dominance.
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4.Rare earths are on Trump’s agenda in China. But US electronic waste offers an untapped source at home (Chatham House)
While China maintains critical dominance over the global rare earth processing supply chain, the US possesses a substantial, untapped domestic resource: electronic waste (e-waste). Estimates suggest that annual US e-waste contains enough rare earth magnets to meet a significant portion of projected domestic demand, far exceeding current domestic mining capacity. However, this potential is hampered by a lack of uniform federal recycling laws and specialized collection infrastructure, leading to valuable materials leaking out of the economy. To achieve mineral security, the US must shift its strategy from solely developing new mines to establishing a robust circular economy model. This requires federal policy intervention, investment in advanced separation technologies, and incentivizing product design for easy disassembly.
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The CFR analysis posits that the Trump-Xi summit is a critical juncture with the potential to fundamentally reshape global trade and technology competition. Key discussions center on nuanced economic strategies, such as China's financial maneuvering (e.g., dollar hoarding) and the necessity for allied manufacturing to counter China's technological dominance in areas like AI and robotics. Policymakers must therefore prepare for significant shifts in the bilateral relationship, emphasizing the need to strengthen allied supply chains and technological resilience to mitigate geopolitical risks.