Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Blind-Spot Politics: Appeasement, Authoritarianism, and Hypocrisy in Europe
English Summary
The article argues that European leaders have historically failed to adequately deter authoritarian threats, citing both the failures in the Balkans and the appeasement of Hitler's regime. Specifically, the author critiques contemporary European leaders (including those in Austria, Germany, and Hungary) for appeasing modern authoritarians, such as Russia's Vladimir Putin. This appeasement is characterized not merely as naiveté, but often as an opportunistic pursuit of material gain. The implication is that this pattern of willful disregard for authoritarian dangers poses a significant strategic risk to European stability and democratic integrity.
中文摘要
本文論述歐洲領導人歷來未能有效威懾威權主義威脅，援引了巴爾幹地區的失敗經驗以及對希特勒政權的綏靖政策作為例證。作者特別批評當代歐洲領導人（包括奧地利、德國和匈牙利的相關人士）對現代威權主義政權，例如俄羅斯總統普丁，採取了綏靖態度。這種綏靖行為的特點並非僅止於天真，而往往是為了尋求機會主義的物質利益。其潛在的含義是，這種有意識地忽視威權主義危險的模式，對歐洲的穩定和民主完整性構成了重大的戰略風險。
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