While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
Don’t Partition Sudan Again
English Summary
Sudan is rapidly descending into a de facto partition, characterized by rival military and political control rather than a unified state. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has consolidated power in the north and center, while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) dominate Darfur and Kordofan, each establishing rival governments and diverging economies. This fragmentation risks turning the civil conflict into a permanent, multi-sided struggle for regional dominance. Policymakers must therefore prioritize diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing further fragmentation and supporting a national reconciliation framework, rather than engaging with the warring factions' claims.
中文摘要
蘇丹正迅速走向實質分裂，其特徵是敵對的軍事和政治控制，而非統一的國家體系。蘇丹武裝部隊（SAF）在北部和中部鞏固了權力，而快速支援部隊（RSF）則主導達爾富爾和科爾多法南，兩方各自建立對抗性的政府和分歧的經濟體系。這種碎片化風險可能將內戰轉變為一場永久性的、多方爭奪區域主導權的鬥爭。因此，政策制定者必須將外交努力的重點放在預防進一步的碎片化，並支持國家和解框架，而非介入與交戰派系提出的主張。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that Beijing is pursuing a 'China first' strategy: maximizing global reach and projecting great-power status without assuming the binding commitments or costs of traditional superpower leadership. Evidence shows China avoids formal alliances, instead favoring flexible, transactional partnerships across diverse regions to expand influence while minimizing risk, particularly as US global confidence declines. While this approach offers short-term strategic advantages by allowing Beijing to maintain distance from regional crises, the analysis warns that it ultimately weakens alignment and fosters a more unstable international order, posing long-term risks to China's own interests.
-
3.
The article argues that a forced Chinese seizure of Taiwan would not represent a military victory but rather a profound strategic disaster for both Taiwan and the United States. Key evidence suggests that incorporating Taiwan’s $1 trillion free-market economy into China's state-directed, mercantilist system would extinguish its democratic vibrancy. This shift would allow Beijing to exert overwhelming political and economic pressure on other regional governments. Consequently, US influence in East Asia would be severely diminished, leading to a period of heightened geopolitical instability and Chinese dominance across the region.
-
4.
The article posits that while AI offers immense potential for global economic revitalization, the United States must first address deep-seated structural issues. The core challenge identified is decades of slow labor productivity growth, which has depressed average incomes and fueled significant political polarization both domestically and globally. To successfully navigate the 'AI Shock,' policy efforts must focus on leveraging technological advancements to boost overall worker productivity. Failure to do so risks exacerbating existing economic disparities and social instability, undermining AI's transformative potential.
-
5.
The recent cease-fire between Iran and the US represents a strategic stalemate, not a conclusive victory for either side. Tehran gained significant leverage by demonstrating its resilience and successfully using control of the Strait of Hormuz to create global energy shortages, forcing Washington to abandon its maximalist goals. The article argues that the U.S. must therefore shift away from planning for outright defeat and instead adopt a strategy of peaceful containment. This requires leveraging regional partners, particularly Gulf monarchies, through security assistance and targeted economic pressure, rather than attempting costly military conflict.