While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
How Orban Defeated Himself
English Summary
The recent electoral defeat of Viktor Orban's populist regime demonstrates that even highly entrenched authoritarian models are vulnerable to political backlash. While Orban maintained power for years by rigging electoral systems and exacerbating societal polarization, these very tactics ultimately proved unsustainable. The finding suggests that the over-reliance on systemic manipulation and polarization can erode the regime's legitimacy and lead to a decisive electoral collapse. For policy makers, this signals that internal political instability and the eventual backlash against authoritarian overreach pose significant risks to established political orders.
中文摘要
維克多·歐爾班民粹主義政權的近期選舉失利表明，即使是高度根深蒂固的威權模式，也容易遭受政治反彈。儘管歐爾班多年來透過操縱選舉制度和加劇社會兩極化來維持權力，但這些手段最終被證明是不可持續的。此發現指出，過度依賴系統性操弄和極化會侵蝕政權的合法性，並導致決定性的選舉崩潰。對於政策制定者而言，這發出了一個信號：內部政治不穩定和對威權過度擴張的反彈，對既有的政治秩序構成重大風險。
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