The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
When China Gets Its Own Mythos
English Summary
Advanced AI models are fundamentally transforming cyber warfare, enabling adversaries to find and exploit critical infrastructure vulnerabilities at an unprecedented scale. While U.S. defenders currently hold a lead, China is rapidly closing this gap by acquiring capabilities through illicit means like adversarial distillation and chip smuggling, ensuring any developed offensive tech goes directly to the state apparatus. This poses an immediate threat of widespread physical compromise across essential systems (power, water) that current infrastructure cannot withstand. Policymakers must recognize the extremely short window remaining to implement dramatic, preemptive policy shifts in cyber defense and harden structurally weak critical infrastructure before adversaries achieve parity.
中文摘要
先進人工智慧模型正在根本性地改變網路戰，使敵對勢方能夠以前所未有的規模尋找並利用關鍵基礎設施的漏洞。雖然美國防禦者目前處於領先地位，但中國正透過非法手段（例如：敵對蒸餾和晶片走私）迅速縮小這一差距，確保任何開發出的攻擊性技術都能直接進入國家體系。這構成了即時且廣泛的物理層面威脅，可能衝擊到當前基礎設施無法承受的關鍵系統（如電力、供水）。政策制定者必須認識到，在敵對勢方達到均勢之前，實施戲劇性、先發制人的網路防禦政策轉型並加固結構薄弱的關鍵基礎設施，剩餘的時間窗口極為短暫。
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