The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Libya’s False Peace
English Summary
The article argues that Libya's current stability is a 'false peace,' maintained by transactional financial deals between rival ruling elites rather than genuine political unification. Key evidence shows that both factions continue to siphon state resources, particularly oil wealth, for personal gain, leading to profound fiscal crises and institutional weakness. For effective stabilization, the US must abandon focusing on elite bargains and instead adopt a broader strategy: bolstering the independence of financial institutions (like the Central Bank and NOC), enforcing transparency through audits, and supporting the groundwork for national elections.
中文摘要
本文論點指出，利比亞目前的穩定狀態是一種「虛假和平」，其維繫的基礎是各方競爭的統治精英之間進行的交易性金融協議，而非真正的政治統一。關鍵證據顯示，各派系持續汲取國家資源，特別是石油財富，用於個人利益，這導致了嚴重的財政危機和制度性弱點。為實現有效的穩定化，美國必須放棄專注於精英間的交易協議，轉而採取更廣泛的策略：強化金融機構（如中央銀行和國家石油公司）的獨立性，透過審計機制推動透明化，並支持國家層級選舉的基礎建設。
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