While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
How Geopolitics Overran Globalization
English Summary
The article argues that the historical trajectory of globalization, which promised universal economic prosperity through open flows of goods and capital, is being fundamentally superseded by geopolitical competition. This shift is evidenced by states prioritizing national security and resilience over pure economic efficiency, leading to the fragmentation of global supply chains and technological decoupling. Consequently, policymakers must abandon the assumption of frictionless markets, adopting 'de-risking' and 'friend-shoring' strategies that integrate economic policy with strategic state planning. This mandates a pivot toward regionalized, politically aligned economic blocs rather than a unified global market.
中文摘要
本文論述全球化的歷史軌跡曾承諾透過商品和資本的自由流動實現普遍的經濟繁榮，但此趨勢正被地緣政治競爭根本性地取代。這種轉變體現在各國將國家安全和韌性置於純粹的經濟效率之上，導致全球供應鏈的碎片化和技術脫鉤。因此，政策制定者必須放棄「無摩擦市場」的假設，轉而採用「去風險化」（de-risking）和「友岸外包」（friend-shoring）等策略，將經濟政策與戰略國家規劃相結合。這要求我們轉向區域化、政治上一致的經濟集團，而非追求統一的全球市場。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that Beijing is pursuing a 'China first' strategy: maximizing global reach and projecting great-power status without assuming the binding commitments or costs of traditional superpower leadership. Evidence shows China avoids formal alliances, instead favoring flexible, transactional partnerships across diverse regions to expand influence while minimizing risk, particularly as US global confidence declines. While this approach offers short-term strategic advantages by allowing Beijing to maintain distance from regional crises, the analysis warns that it ultimately weakens alignment and fosters a more unstable international order, posing long-term risks to China's own interests.
-
3.
The article argues that a forced Chinese seizure of Taiwan would not represent a military victory but rather a profound strategic disaster for both Taiwan and the United States. Key evidence suggests that incorporating Taiwan’s $1 trillion free-market economy into China's state-directed, mercantilist system would extinguish its democratic vibrancy. This shift would allow Beijing to exert overwhelming political and economic pressure on other regional governments. Consequently, US influence in East Asia would be severely diminished, leading to a period of heightened geopolitical instability and Chinese dominance across the region.
-
4.
The article posits that while AI offers immense potential for global economic revitalization, the United States must first address deep-seated structural issues. The core challenge identified is decades of slow labor productivity growth, which has depressed average incomes and fueled significant political polarization both domestically and globally. To successfully navigate the 'AI Shock,' policy efforts must focus on leveraging technological advancements to boost overall worker productivity. Failure to do so risks exacerbating existing economic disparities and social instability, undermining AI's transformative potential.
-
5.
The recent cease-fire between Iran and the US represents a strategic stalemate, not a conclusive victory for either side. Tehran gained significant leverage by demonstrating its resilience and successfully using control of the Strait of Hormuz to create global energy shortages, forcing Washington to abandon its maximalist goals. The article argues that the U.S. must therefore shift away from planning for outright defeat and instead adopt a strategy of peaceful containment. This requires leveraging regional partners, particularly Gulf monarchies, through security assistance and targeted economic pressure, rather than attempting costly military conflict.