While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
The Jokowi Presidency: Indonesia’s Decade of Authoritarian Revival
English Summary
The analysis concludes that Jokowi's presidency delivered significant economic gains, marked by infrastructural transformation and low inflation, but at a steep democratic cost. While the administration successfully disrupted old political networks, it replaced them with new forms of cronyism and systematically weakened anti-corruption mechanisms. Crucially, the government also curtailed dissent and blocked political rivals, demonstrating a clear trend toward authoritarian consolidation. This pattern suggests that rapid state development and economic growth in developing nations may not inherently preserve democratic institutions, posing a structural risk of democratic backsliding.
中文摘要
分析總結指出，喬科維（Jokowi）的總統任期雖然帶來了顯著的經濟增長，體現為基礎設施的轉型和低通膨，但其代價卻是高昂的民主成本。儘管政府成功瓦解了舊有的政治網絡，但卻以新的裙帶關係形式取而代之，並系統性地削弱了反腐機制。更關鍵的是，政府也限制了異議聲音並阻撓政治競爭對手，展現出明顯的威權鞏固趨勢。此一模式暗示，發展中國家若追求快速的國家發展和經濟增長，並不能必然地維護民主制度，這構成了一種結構性的民主倒退風險。
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