The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Centers of Power in the Arab Gulf States
English Summary
The analysis argues that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are not monolithic, challenging the common perception of them as indistinguishable absolute monarchies. It provides a detailed, comparative look at the diverse internal dynamics, examining everything from parliamentary politics (Kuwait) and sovereign wealth fund ambitions (Saudi Arabia) to varying approaches to popular representation and opposition. This deep dive reveals significant variation in the resources, strategies, and governance models employed by these powerful ruling families. Policymakers must therefore avoid generalizing about the region, instead tailoring their strategies to account for the unique political and institutional dynamics of each individual Gulf state.
中文摘要
本分析指出，海灣合作委員會（GCC）成員國並非單一實體，挑戰了將其視為無法區分的絕對君主國的普遍觀念。文章詳細比較了其內部動態的多樣性，涵蓋了從議會政治（科威特）和主權財富基金的野心（沙烏地阿拉伯），到不同形式的民意代表和反對意見的處理方式。這項深入探討揭示了這些強大統治家族在資源、策略和治理模式上存在顯著差異。因此，政策制定者必須避免對整個地區進行概括性論述，而是應根據每個海灣國家獨特的政治和制度動態來量身定制其策略。
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