The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Before the Fed: J. P. Morgan, America’s Lender of Last Resort
English Summary
The article argues that historical financial stability often relied on powerful private bankers, such as J. P. Morgan, who served as the de facto lender of last resort before the Federal Reserve was established. Morgan stabilized the U.S. financial system pre-1913 by actively mobilizing emergency liquidity, a method contrasted with the perceived lack of collective responsibility during the 2008 crisis. His successful crisis-mitigation strategies and institutional mentorship were foundational, leading to the adoption of these tools by the Federal Reserve. This suggests that the historical reliance on powerful private actors fundamentally shaped the structure and tools of modern central banking.
中文摘要
本文論述，歷史上的金融穩定往往依賴於像摩根大通（J. P. Morgan）這樣有影響力的私人銀行家，他們在聯準會（Federal Reserve）成立之前，扮演了實質上的最後貸款人角色。摩根透過積極動員緊急流動性，在1913年之前穩定美國金融體系，此方法與人們認為2008年危機期間缺乏集體責任感的情況形成了對比。他成功的危機緩解策略和制度性指導，為聯準會採納這些工具奠定了基礎。這暗示了歷史上對強大私人行為者的依賴，從根本上形塑了現代中央銀行體系的結構和工具。
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