The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Ukraine and the New Way of War
English Summary
The conflict in Ukraine demonstrates that modern great-power warfare is characterized by sustained, highly destructive conventional conflict and a fragile, elevated risk of nuclear escalation, rather than quick, decisive outcomes. While Russia's nuclear threats are significant, Ukraine's resilience and ability to strike deep into Russian territory show that nuclear weapons do not guarantee coercive leverage. Consequently, the U.S. must update its defense planning to prepare for protracted wars of attrition with nuclear-armed adversaries, focusing on strengthening deterrence, coordinating with allies, and maintaining readiness for extended, high-stakes conflicts.
中文摘要
烏克蘭的衝突顯示，現代大國層面的戰爭特徵是持續性、高度破壞性的傳統衝突，以及脆弱且升高的核升級風險，而非快速、決定性的戰果。儘管俄羅斯的核威脅極為重大，但烏克蘭的韌性及其深入俄羅斯領土的打擊能力表明，核武器並不能保證強制性的戰略籌碼。因此，美國必須更新其國防規劃，以應對與擁有核武的敵對方進行的長期消耗戰，重點應放在強化威懾、與盟友協調，以及維持應對長期、高風險衝突的戰備狀態。
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