Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Radioactive Measures Hybrid Threats And Nuclear Risks In Europe And Beyond
English Summary
The report argues that while hybrid threats may pose physical risks to nuclear infrastructure, their greatest impact lies in the information sphere. States, notably Russia, are exploiting concerns about radiation safety through disinformation and minor incursions to generate fear and uncertainty across Europe. This campaign aims not at the facilities themselves, but at undermining the 'social license'—the political and public acceptance of nuclear technology. Successfully eroding this confidence could critically complicate long-term energy security objectives and weaken public support for both civil nuclear power and military deterrence arrangements among Western allies.
中文摘要
本報告指出，雖然混合威脅可能對核設施構成實體風險，但其最大的衝擊點在於資訊層面。諸國（特別是俄羅斯）正利用虛假訊息和輕微入侵等手段，放大人們對於輻射安全的擔憂，從而在歐洲製造恐懼與不確定性。這場行動的目標並非設施本身，而是旨在破壞「社會許可」（social license）——即核技術的政治和公眾接受度。若成功侵蝕了這種信心，將會嚴重複雜化長期能源安全目標，並削弱西方盟國對民用核能及軍事威懾安排的公眾支持。
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