The paper concludes that any significant crisis or full-scale conflict in the Taiwan Strait poses severe and potentially disastrous economic risks for Malaysia, given its deep trade reliance on China and its critical role in global semiconductor supply chains. Economic modeling differentiates between a mere 'crisis' (estimated losses of 4.1% of GDP) and a full 'conflict,' which could result in devastating losses up to 41% of GDP due to severe trade disruptions and potential sanctions. Strategically, while Malaysia maintains an approach of 'active non-alignment,' the findings underscore that geopolitical instability necessitates immediate policy focus on economic resilience, supply chain diversification, and preparing for rapid shifts in global trade architecture.
Mapping Risk And Resilience In The Global Illicit Gold Economy
English Summary
This research argues that the global illicit gold economy is a critical nexus of conflict financing and regional resilience, deeply embedding itself within unstable geopolitical zones. The analysis demonstrates how non-state armed groups exploit weak governance structures to fund operations by controlling unregulated mining and trade supply chains. Consequently, policymakers must adopt integrated strategies that move beyond simple enforcement; effective intervention requires linking financial intelligence, security cooperation, and development aid to disrupt the illicit flow of capital at its source points.
中文摘要
本研究主張，全球非法黃金經濟是一個至關重要的衝突資金來源和區域韌性交匯點，它已深植於不穩定的地緣政治區域。分析顯示，非國家武裝團體利用治理結構的薄弱環節，透過控制不受規範的採礦和貿易供應鏈來為其運營提供資金。因此，政策制定者必須採取整合性的策略，超越單純的執法措施；有效的干預需要將金融情報、安全合作與發展援助連結起來，從源頭點切斷非法資本流動。
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