The rapid financing of the AI boom through massive corporate debt issuance is creating significant stress on global financial markets. This influx of private capital forces competition with government Treasury bonds, as AI companies offer higher yields than equivalent sovereign debt, thereby pushing up long-term interest rates. While this signals strong investment demand for AI, it raises concerns about systemic risk and the potential destabilization of core bond markets. Policymakers must navigate the tension between fueling critical technological growth and maintaining stable public borrowing costs to prevent a financial crisis.
Federal Revenue When AI Replaces Labor: An Examination of Economic Scenarios with Highly Capable Artificial Intelligence
English Summary
The report argues that widespread AI adoption poses a significant threat to federal revenue because current tax structures are disproportionately reliant on individual and payroll taxes derived from labor income. Key evidence shows that the replacement of high-paid white-collar jobs, coupled with deflationary pressures from low-cost AI, could drastically reduce personal and corporate tax receipts. For fiscal stability, policymakers must fundamentally restructure the tax code to reduce dependence on labor income, shifting revenue collection toward corporate or excise taxes. Furthermore, maintaining federal revenue requires scenarios where displaced workers can successfully reemploy themselves.
中文摘要
該報告指出，廣泛採用人工智慧（AI）對聯邦財政收入構成重大威脅，因為現行的稅制結構過度依賴源自勞動所得的個人和薪資稅。關鍵證據顯示，高收入白領職位被取代，加上低成本 AI 帶來的通貨緊縮壓力，可能會大幅減少個人及企業稅收收入。為確保財政穩定，政策制定者必須徹底重組稅法，降低對勞動所得的依賴性，將稅收徵集轉向企業稅或消費稅。此外，維持聯邦收入還要求出現情景，使失業工人能夠成功重新就業。
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