The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater defined by sustained U.S.-led military exercises and escalating great power competition. Key evidence includes continuous joint operations, such as RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii and the deployment of CSGs into the South China Sea, juxtaposed with increased naval activity from both China (PLAN task groups) and Russia near Japan's critical straits. These movements underscore a strategic push by non-allied powers to assert presence and challenge regional norms. Policy implications dictate that allied nations must maintain robust multilateral cooperation and interoperability to safeguard freedom of navigation and manage escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
Insights from table-top exercises in Europe on AI safety and cyber misuse
English Summary
Table-top exercises conducted across Europe reveal significant governance gaps in national preparedness for large-scale cyberattacks powered by advanced AI capabilities. Policymakers struggled with defining crisis thresholds, assessing risks from proprietary models, and coordinating responses due to reliance on developer self-assessments and institutional silos. To effectively manage this threat, the report urgently recommends establishing pre-agreed escalation protocols, developing independent technical capacity for risk evaluation, and implementing robust multilateral governance frameworks that can activate rapidly during a crisis.
中文摘要
在歐洲進行的桌面演練揭示了國家層面對於應對由先進人工智慧能力驅動的大規模網路攻擊，存在顯著的治理缺口。政策制定者在定義危機門檻、評估來自專有模型（proprietary models）的風險，以及由於過度依賴開發商的自我評估和制度孤島化而協調應對措施方面遇到困難。為有效管理此類威脅，報告迫切建議建立預先約定的升級協議、發展獨立的技術能力以進行風險評估，並實施強健的多邊治理框架，使其能在危機期間迅速啟動。
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