The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
China's strategic petroleum reserve as a geoeconomic tool: A 'what if' exercise
English Summary
The RAND report argues that China's massive Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), estimated at 1.1–1.4 billion barrels, represents a potential geoeconomic tool far exceeding its function as a mere energy security buffer. Key to this leverage is the state's unique control over both government and commercial reserves, allowing for flexible intervention during global supply shocks. This capacity could enable Beijing to influence international oil markets, project power, or punish adversaries by strategically releasing or withholding reserves. Policymakers must therefore anticipate scenarios where China utilizes its energy assets not just for domestic stability, but as a primary instrument of foreign economic policy and geopolitical leverage.
中文摘要
《蘭德報告》指出，中國龐大的戰略石油儲備（SPR），估計為11億至14億桶，已超越了作為單純能源安全緩衝的職能，成為一個潛在的地緣經濟工具。其核心槓桿點在於國家對政府和商業儲備的獨特控制權，這使得中國能夠在全球供應衝擊期間進行靈活干預。這種能力可能使北京得以影響國際原油市場、投射實力，或透過策略性釋放或囤積儲備來懲罰敵對勢力。因此，政策制定者必須預期一種情境：即中國不僅將其能源資產用於維持國內穩定，更會將其作為外國經濟政策和地緣政治槓桿的主要工具。
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