The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Will Trump’s Next Tariffs Be a “Sham,” Too?
English Summary
This analysis argues that the administration's planned tariffs under Section 301 are likely a 'sham' because the decision to impose them appears predetermined, regardless of the investigation's findings. The author critiques the USTR's methodology for determining 'Structural Excess Capacity' (SEC), citing that the process relies on arbitrary benchmarks (such as the 80% utilization rate) and fails to establish clear causal links. Furthermore, the piece notes that the U.S. government itself utilizes numerous non-market policies and subsidies, suggesting that the US should examine its own trade practices rather than solely focusing on foreign nations. Consequently, the article warns that the impending tariffs may be based on legally and economically dubious data, signaling a potential overreach in US trade policy.
中文摘要
本分析指出，行政部門根據《301條款》計劃徵收的關稅很可能屬於「虛設」性質，因為其徵收決定似乎是預先定案的，與調查結果無關。作者批評了美國貿易代表署（USTR）在確定「結構性過剩產能」（SEC）時所採用的方法論，指出該過程依賴於武斷的基準（例如80%的利用率），且未能建立清晰的因果關係。此外，文章提到美國政府自身也實施了許多非市場政策和補貼，暗示美國應檢視自身的貿易實踐，而非僅專注於外國國家。因此，本文警告稱，這些即將實施的關稅可能基於法律和經濟上可疑的數據，預示著美國貿易政策可能存在權力過度擴張的風險。
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