The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Russian Annexation of Belarus
English Summary
The CFR argues that the U.S. must pursue a measured Belarus policy that cautiously renews ties while preparing for potential Russian annexation within two years—either through gradual institutional absorption or sudden coercive action. While Belarus's small economy offers limited material gain to Russia, its geographic position as a buffer state is strategically vital for reducing direct Russia-NATO confrontation risk. Annexation would eliminate this buffer, extend Russian power westward, potentially trigger refugee crises and military buildups on NATO's eastern border, and reshape Europe's security architecture. The U.S. should pursue a "creeping independence" strategy to enhance Belarusian autonomy without provoking Russia, while developing intelligence-based warning systems and contingency protocols with allies. Response to annexation should be calibrated to whether it occurs consensually or coercively, with enhanced NATO deterrence and targeted sanctions in the latter case.
中文摘要
CFR主張美國必須追求一項審慎的白俄羅斯政策，一方面謹慎地重建關係，另一方面為兩年內可能發生的俄羅斯兼併做準備——兼併可能通過漸進式制度吸收或突然強制行動實現。儘管白俄羅斯經濟規模小，對俄羅斯的物質利益有限，但其作為緩衝國家的地理位置對降低俄羅斯與北約直接對抗風險至關重要。兼併將消除此一緩衝、向西擴展俄羅斯勢力、可能引發難民危機和北約東部邊境的軍事集結，並改變歐洲安全架構。美國應採取「漸進式獨立」戰略以增強白俄羅斯自主性而不激怒俄羅斯，同時與盟國共同開發基於情報的預警系統和應急方案。對兼併的應對應根據其是否自願或強制進行而調整，在強制情況下應加強北約威懾並實施有針對性的制裁。
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