The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Why a Nervous Mideast Braces for a New Round of Upheaval
English Summary
The article argues that the unusually large U.S. military buildup around Iran has put the Middle East on edge because regional governments see a high risk of conflict but still lack clarity on Washington’s objectives. It points to Gulf states’ refusal to join an attack, dual U.S. carrier deployments, and fears of Iranian retaliation through Strait of Hormuz disruption and proxy strikes, while noting Geneva talks produced only vague “guiding principles” rather than a concrete deal. It also highlights the contradiction between launching a Gaza reconstruction-oriented Board of Peace and simultaneously signaling readiness for military escalation against Tehran. The policy implication is that U.S. strategy must align deterrence with explicit end-states, coalition reassurance, and escalation-control mechanisms to avoid a broader regional war that could derail both Gulf economic priorities and Gaza stabilization.
中文摘要
文章主張，美國在伊朗周邊異常大規模的軍事集結已使中東局勢高度緊張，因為區域各國政府雖普遍認為衝突風險偏高，卻仍不清楚華府的戰略目標。文章指出，波灣國家拒絕參與對伊攻擊、美軍同時部署兩個航母打擊群，以及外界對伊朗可能透過擾亂荷莫茲海峽與代理人打擊進行報復的憂慮；同時也提到，日內瓦會談僅產出籠統的「指導原則」，未形成具體協議。文章並強調一項政策矛盾：一方面推出以加薩重建為導向的「和平委員會」（Board of Peace），另一方面又釋出對德黑蘭升高軍事行動的訊號。其政策意涵是，美國策略必須在嚇阻之外明確界定終局目標、安撫盟友並建立升高控制機制，以避免更廣泛的區域戰爭，否則恐衝擊波灣經濟優先議程與加薩穩定進程。
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