China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.
Zambia’s election: President Hichilema must preserve his country’s democratic reputation
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis argues that for Zambia to sustain its economic reforms and attract vital foreign investment, President Hichilema must prioritize preserving democratic institutions during the upcoming election. While macroeconomic stabilization has restored international confidence, political legitimacy hinges on a credible electoral process, as voters are yet to feel the benefits of abstract financial rehabilitation. Consequently, international allies are advised to act as 'critical friends,' ensuring that their support for economic stability is consistently coupled with demands for institutional integrity and democratic restraint. This balanced approach is vital to prevent authoritarian drift from undermining Zambia's foundational political capital.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析指出，為使贊比西亞能夠維持其經濟改革並吸引關鍵外國投資，希切萊馬總統必須在即將到來的選舉中優先維護民主制度。儘管宏觀經濟穩定已恢復國際信心，但政治合法性卻取決於可信的選舉過程，因為選民尚未感受到抽象財務復興帶來的益處。因此，建議國際盟友應扮演「批判性朋友」（critical friends）的角色，確保其對經濟穩定的支持始終與要求制度完整性和民主克制的要求相結合。這種平衡的方法對於防止威權化趨勢破壞贊比西亞的基礎政治資本至關重要。
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