The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Head of Chatham House Ukraine Forum gives evidence to UK Parliament Defence Committee on Ukraine war
English Summary
Chatham House Ukraine Forum head Orysia Lutsevych testified before the UK Parliament Defence Committee that Ukrainian public support for a ceasefire along current front lines is growing, but remains contingent on credible security guarantees including a multinational deterrent force. She highlighted Ukraine's recent battlefield successes driven by defence industry innovation, national unity, and increased European support offsetting US withdrawal, while acknowledging war fatigue from constant bombardment and conscription debates. Lutsevych urged the UK to scale up production of long-range missiles and air defence interceptors, underscoring that any sustainable ceasefire arrangement must credibly prevent future Russian aggression to avoid imperilling both Ukrainian and broader European security.
中文摘要
英國皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）烏克蘭論壇主任奧莉西亞·盧采維奇（Orysia Lutsevych）於英國國會國防委員會作證指出，烏克蘭民眾對沿現有前線停火的支持度正在上升，但仍取決於可信的安全保障，包括多國嚇阻部隊。她強調烏克蘭近期在國防工業創新、國家團結及歐洲支持增加以彌補美國撤出等因素驅動下取得的戰場成果，同時也承認持續轟炸與徵兵爭議所帶來的戰爭疲勞。盧采維奇敦促英國擴大遠程飛彈與防空攔截系統的生產規模，並強調任何可持續的停火安排必須能切實防止俄羅斯未來的侵略行為，否則將危及烏克蘭及更廣泛的歐洲安全。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
Congress has significantly expanded presidential tariff authority by passing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, allowing the executive to impose up to 100% tariffs on key buyers of Russian energy and sanctions enablers. The article argues that this legislation represents a dangerous abdication of Congress's Article I authority, as it grants the executive vast, discretionary power without specifying criteria for enforcement. Historically, the executive could claim tariffs were its own doing; however, by writing and passing this new authority, Congress now owns the resulting trade policy and its economic consequences. This shift implies that future tariffs will be viewed by the public as a direct legislative action, potentially undermining the administration's credibility and creating political vulnerability.
-
3.
Cuba is on a trajectory toward an accelerating state and economic collapse, risking a point of no return. The state is deteriorating into "authoritarian anarchy," retaining its capacity for political repression but losing the ability to provide basic public services like health and safety. Economically, while the private sector is growing, this expansion is highly unequal, fueling cronyism and widening class gaps between the elite and the poor. If the current trend continues, the country risks calcifying these defects into a dysfunctional baseline, severely diminishing the chances of a stable, democratic transition.
-
4.
The article analyzes Finland's agreement to coordinate its conventional forces with French nuclear capabilities, clarifying that no nuclear weapons will be stationed in Finland. The author argues that increased communication between nuclear powers, rather than the deployment of weapons, is beneficial for reducing the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation, particularly near Russia. For Europe, the policy recommendation is a responsible middle course: strengthening non-nuclear military capabilities to deter Russia while simultaneously negotiating a stable system, such as non-aligned buffer states. This approach is presented as a diplomatic alternative to both aggressive military action and surrender.
-
5.
The article argues that China's ongoing purges are not signs of weakness, but rather a sophisticated, historically rooted process of 'rectification' that strengthens the CCP's grip on power. This mechanism requires cadres to submit mandatory self-criticisms and build permanent, detailed personnel files (dossiers). This system of record-keeping is the CCP's primary source of resilience, creating profound, internalized discipline that controls internal dissent. Policymakers must recognize that the regime's durability stems from this deep internal control mechanism, making succession—rather than internal purges—the ultimate strategic vulnerability.