The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Brexit 10 years on: Michel Barnier and the future of UK–EU relations
English Summary
A decade after Brexit, UK-EU relations are entering a new phase of cautious engagement, though persistent disputes over trade, regulation, and mobility continue to complicate cooperation. Michel Barnier, former French PM, argues that the relationship's trajectory depends on managing structural tensions while accounting for shifting domestic politics—particularly France's 2027 presidential election. The discussion emphasizes that realistic near-term cooperation outcomes require acknowledging both sides' desire to rebuild ties and the practical limits imposed by regulatory divergence and political constraints in London, Paris, and Brussels.
中文摘要
英國脫歐十年後，英歐關係正進入一個謹慎互動的新階段。然而，貿易、監管和流動性方面的持續爭議，仍持續複雜化雙方的合作。前法國總理米歇爾·巴尼耶（Michel Barnier）認為，雙方關係的發展軌跡，取決於能否管理結構性張力，同時考量到不斷變化的國內政治局勢——特別是法國2027年總統大選。本文討論強調，若要達成現實的短期合作成果，必須正視雙方重建關係的意願，以及監管分歧和倫敦、巴黎、布魯塞爾的政治限制所帶來的實際瓶頸。
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