The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
From the Editor
English Summary
The escalation of conflict involving Iran and Israel poses significant global risks that extend far beyond the Middle East region. Key concerns highlighted include the vulnerability of critical maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential for geopolitical instability to trigger widespread global food crises. Strategically, regional powers must overcome internal divisions to counter external dominance efforts in the area. Furthermore, Europe faces a pressing need to redefine its defense posture while addressing critical dependencies on major global partners.
中文摘要
伊朗和以色列之間衝突的升級，對全球構成重大風險，其影響遠超中東地區。主要關注點包括關鍵海運要道（如霍爾木茲海峽）的脆弱性，以及地緣政治不穩定可能引發全球範圍糧食危機的可能性。從戰略角度來看，區域大國必須克服內部分歧，以抵制外部勢力的主導企圖。此外，歐洲迫切需要重新定義其防禦態勢，同時解決對主要全球夥伴的關鍵依賴性問題。
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